Forex Secrets - Developing the "Anti-Chaos" Trading Strategy and Tactics at Forex Market (Part I)

"Trading chaos": B. Williams's contribution and the reasons why millions of traders all over the world lose their deposits when they work according to the techniques of this author.

The book "Trading Chaos" by B. Williams is the classical edition that deals with giving the technical analysis to Forex. It is of a great interest not only to me but also to millions of B. Williams's admirers all over the world. From the viewpoint of mine as a trader, this book is so popular because B. Williams tried to do the following:

1. To present Forex chaotic market as a system, making use of the chaos theory.

2. To depict his vision of logic of the structural components motion in this chaos: a) the strategy (Elliot's wave theory); b) the tactics (the fractal analysis; the use of fractals and the so-called "key factor" - i.e., financial and economic instruments.

3. To submit 5 levels of the professional training of every trader. Each of these levels is clearly described and specified - as well as the corresponding goals and the instruments that traders must be capable of using at each of these levels.

In particular, the following chapters of the book in question are dedicated to the problems enumerated below:

Chapter 6. The first level - a trader- novice.

Chapter 7. The second level - an advanced beginner.

Chapter 9. The third level - a competent trader.

Chapter 11. The fourth level - a skilful (trading) trader.

Chapter 12. The fifth level - a trader -expert.

4. Besides, B. Williams enumerates 5 "bullets" that can "kill" any trend -i.e., its reversal points (points of reference). Starting from such points, one can develop new strategy and tactics of the work within the trend.

5. B. Williams also recommends making a business plan. In this "control list", one must clearly specify "the working rhythm", the signals from "the big finger" concerning the deal opening, "stop-loss" levels, cushion pads (suspension pillows), etc.

6. As a professional psychotherapist and trader, B. Williams submits practical recommendations to the beginners and skillful (competent) traders - see Chapters 11 and 12 from "Trading Chaos». The essence of his attitude to traders' principal psychological problems can be approximately formulated as the following. We learn how to integrate into the market basic structure and establish contacts with the market via realizing our own prejudices and by the development of our individual trading programs. You should compare this approach with other psychoanalysts' viewpoints. Such "specialists" try to make money at Forex market rather incompetently (see Chapter 23, dedicated to traders' psychological problems that arise during the work at Forex and methods of their "healing").

7. As the logical continuation of "Trading Chaos", B. Williams has written another book - see "New Dimensions in Exchange Trading". In this book, the author presents his business approach - i.e., Profitunity "via the web".

· He has introduced the indicators (AO, AC and Alligator). Now they are regarded as the obligatory) components of the majority of Forex trading systems.

· He tried to "specify (detect) all market signals" and open deals at the moment when such signals coincide simultaneously, which must be confirmed by different indicators.

I would like to keep on complimenting B. Williams for his accomplishments and contribution to Forex theory but for "one snag to it". Several years ago I started to reflect on certain aspects of B. William's theory. That is, as a rule, 95-97% of traders had lost at Forex before the edition of "Trade Chaos 1, -2" and "New dimensions". At the same time, notwithstanding all achievements and discoveries by B. Williams, the number of traders -losers still remains the same even after the editing of these books.

This circumstance forced me to scrutinize many of B. William's positions more impartially and in detail. I have cardinally reconsidered my views on the trading at Forex.

As I see it, one must clearly distinguish domains where techniques by B. William's and other authors are applicable and where they do not work but only accelerate the process of losing money by a trader. Only after having learned how to detect this boundary one can develop one's own trading system that will bring profits at Forex.

Further, I try to submit my views on Forex market. Starting from the theory, I make a transition to its practical application. In this way one can better understand logic of the currency pair movement at Forex market. Consequently, this approach helps us to trace out a general pattern of opening and closing of transactions at Forex.

CHANGES in FOREX MARKET. FOREX CONTROLLABLE SYSTEM instead of CHAOTIC MARKET and ITS CONSEQUENCES for TRADER'S WORK

Previously Forex was a chaotic market. B. Williams tried to find elements of a system, making use of the theory of chaos. At present the system "tries to disguise its goals and plans" with the help of a superficially chaotic character of movements in this market.

As regards Consortium, the PRINCIPAL CONCLUSION that a trader must make after reading this chapter is the following. This market has ceased to be spontaneous. Now it is organized and controllable. At present volumes of transactions, opened by traders, have ceased being of great influence. Somebody's interest "to push" a currency towards this or that direction has become much more important. Often this interest aims at usurping an N- transaction volume and a number of traders' orders. The primary goal has become to reverse all currency pairs into the opposite direction. This is why the currency often "moves" against the volume, news and the common sense. The charts on April 1, 2005 perfectly illustrate these tendencies. I sincerely hope that everybody sees that these graphs do make exceptions but they don't confirm the rules of Forex.

This is why the techniques of working at Forex, written by those classicists who dealt with the spontaneous market, will more and more diverge from the currency real (true) quotations. It is necessary to mention that at the spontaneous market the direction of the trend and its intensity coincide with the trading volume. At present the base of Forex market is changed in its essence. Now it's being driven by INTEREST of a certain grouping but not by spontaneous forces. This grouping prescribes the currency quotations to us at the market. It is ready to reverse currency pairs against any volume of traders' orders.

The reader should recall one of A. Elder's principal ideas - this author is the classicist of the stock market technical analysis, a trader and the professional psychotherapist. He states that the market is being driven by a crowd (flock), which opens the deals towards one direction. This results in the trade formation.

It is justified when one deals with the chaotic market.

But what does happen at Forex market at present?

Let us again return to the example of USD trend reversal from the "bear" type to "bull" one.

The charts on April 1, 2005 are depicted below.

Chart 8.1. EUR/USD movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.2. GBP/USD pair movement. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Let us scrutinize GBP/USD pair behavior on April 1, 2005 after issuing of positive data on GBP and negative ones concerning USA economics. During March, in Great Britain CIPS manufacturing index made 52.0 (the previous value had been reconsidered from 51.8 down to 51.6). In New York, the oil price heightened by $ 2.40 - up to $ 57.70 per barrel. It was the new record-breaking high price in 21 years. During March in USA Nonfarm payrolls were minimal to start from July of the previous year. Its previous value was revised towards its diminution. Michigan sentiment index was 92.6 in March (the forecast had been 92.9 - it had coincided with the previous value). All USA indexes had fallen down.

I hope you take on trust that at the same moment all other currency pairs were adjusted for benefit of USD rate rise against other national currencies. Those who do not believe can check it - these data are public and open to general use.

There arise the questions.

1. Can traders all over the world open transactions in USD "bear" trend almost at the same moment (from M1 to H4 and D1). That is, under the condition of the issue of negative news on USA economy, all traders simultaneously started to buy USD and sell all national currencies. Consequently, USD rate began to sky-rocket. Clearly, this situation contradicts the news, logic and common sense.

2. One should pay attention to the synchronous character of motion of all national currency pairs. The difference in time makes from a fraction of a second to a minute.

The charts on April 29, 2005 serve as another example.

Chart 8.3. EUR/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.4. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Analysts attract our attention to the following facts. In the European session EURO/USD pair rate had increased up to the point 1.2976. In the American session it fell down to 1.2852, minimal to start from April 15. The rate fell more than by 120 points. Analysts emphasize the fact that high values of several other USA indices (CIPS and Chicago PMI) pegged USD rate.

In USA in March the personal income index was +0.5%. At the same time, the prognostication had been +0.4%, which had coincided with the previous value. In USA in March the personal spending index made +0.6%. The prognostication and the previous value had been +0.5% and +0.7%, respectively. In April Chicago PMI made 65.6. The prognostication had been 63.0, whereas the prognostication and the previous value had had been 63.0 and 69.2, respectively.

As the consequence of this second "fortuitous" reversal of currencies, USD trend at H4 was changed - from April till the end September, 2005 - i.e., during half a year (at least when his chapter was being written).

As the result of this reversal, national currencies were depreciated with respect to USD. The corresponding indicators (gauges) are the following:

· EURO fell by 1100 points (from 1.2972 down to 1.1865);

· GBP fell by 1900 points (from 1.9164 down to 1.7271);

· CHF fell by 1600 points (from 1.1882 down to 1.3484);

· AUD fell almost by 500 points (from 1.7844 down to 1.7365).

It is an absurd joke, isn't it?

That is, the trend has reversed synchronously with respect to all national currencies by 1000-1900 points for half a year just because of the following events in USA on March, 2005:

- Chicago PMI index was +0.5% instead of +0.4%;

- personal spending index made +0.6% in place of the previous value +0.7%.

Were these events stimulated by traders' wishes and expectations? That is, does it look like all traders simultaneously were being staking wrong over and over again during half a year!

Giving analysis to all the events of those two days, one can see a striking alternative:

1. Either we assume an absurd possibility that there does exist "a world-wide plot of traders" - big gamblers at Forex " included. That is, traders can always act synchronously, whereas National Banks of all countries keep on remaining oddly passive.

2. Otherwise, proceeding from these and hundreds of thousands of the analogous examples, we must admit that Forex is not a spontaneous, unpredictable and chaotic market any more. Now it is replaced by a market, controlled by somebody. In terms of Financial Times and the journal "Currency profiteer (speculator)", this parent group (the organizer of Forex ), is called "Consortium". Below I use this term as well. Consortium is capable of the following:

a). in a fraction of a second to reverse USD trend more than by thousand of points with respect to all national currencies of the world;

b). not to give any chance to National Banks of all countries in the world to prevent the steep fall (or rise) of their national currency rates with respect to USD. Surely, it is assumable that National Banks closely collaborate with this Consortium. However, in this context another statement is important. That is, USD rate reversal occurs simultaneously with respect to exchange rates of all national currencies. However, it looks rather dubious that this very day wishes of all National Banks' suddenly coincided with the purposes of Consortium. Probably, another situation is more realistic. At least some of National Banks were forced to obey Consortium's resolution - i.e., to reverse USD trend with respect to other currencies, their own included.

Thus, there emerges a completely different model. One must not follow "the crowd" ("the flock"), trading volumes and postponed orders at Forex. Giving analysis to a series of factors (the trading volume included), it is necessary to understand the interests and aims of those who give quotations at Forex. Our goal is "to trade together with those individuals". Very often it is against the "crowd" and "volume" of transactions opened by traders. It is illustrated by the example of the charts on April 1, 2005.

Let's dwell on the difference between the goals of Organizer and common participants of any of financial games.

Imagine yourself in the position of an organizer of any financial game, the game of " Forex " included. In the shoes of Organizer, first of all you must determine your goals and principles, opposite to those of other participants of this "game".

1. For the game organizer it is to gain profit regularly and stably.

2. For this purpose, Organizer tries to establish the game rules as simple and "impartial" as possible. His goal is to make this game attractive for all other participants. In this way Organizer collects a large audience of traders, independently of their age, profession and other differences between them.

And now one should look at the familiar aspects from this viewpoint.

a). The fundamental and technical analysis; the army of economists-analysts and other "specialists" who teach all participants to work at Forex "as all do".

b). The classical version of notions of the support and resistance levels (indicators, advisers, etc.), intended for placing all suspended orders and stop-losses approximately at the same points.

c). An abundance of news and factors that influence the currency quotation behavior. As the result, one can readily explain the movement of any currency pair in any way one likes - however, such explanations are submitted post factum.

In case of logical gaps in "impartiality" of the currency pair movement explanation after the issue of news, "foul (forbidden)" methods are always "at service". It is just impossible to refute this reasoning! There are the examples: "the market is unpredictable", "the currency has already finished "working for" the given news before its publication", "the participants have noticed a negative aspect of the index high values, which for sure will manifest itself in future", "an unknown clearing bank has placed an order for buying a given currency in a large amount - under the condition of the "bear" trend (when all trader stake on "sell")", etc. Can you prove the opposite? Surely, you cannot.

You should compare the behavior of the controllable and spontaneous currency markets under the condition of force major.

Only the force major factor is totally unpredictable by Organizer. Such circumstances impartially and clearly indicate the difference between the spontaneous and organized (controllable) markets.

In any area, extremities always play the role of the moment of absolute truth. That is, such extreme situations indicate weak and strong points of any system. It relates to politicians' behavior at crucial periods in a State, to putting on trial equipment and to the situation at the currency market under force major circumstances.

The Episode #1. The force major circumstances in USA on September 11, 2001. There is the difference in the behavior of spontaneous and controllable money-markets.

Chart 8.5. EUR/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.6. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

The results of trading at Forex on September 11, 2001 ( Forexite Ltd.) are the following. The dollar rate sweepingly fell as compared with the principal national currencies. EURO/USD rate increased more than by 200 points (from 0.8965 up to 0.99167). GBP/USD rate increased more than by 210 points (from 1.4559 up to 1.4773). USD/JPY rate fell almost by 330 points (from 121.84 down to 118.58).

The reason for drop in USD rate was the terrorists' attacks on New-York and Washington. According to news agencies, terrorists had had high-jacked passenger planes. The latter were directed at Trading Center in New-York and Department of Defense (Pentagon) in Washington. The planes had fallen down, which caused the subsequent conflagration and collapse of Trading Center two sky-scrapers. As the result, the trading at New-York Stock Exchange did not take place that day. It was suspended for a not fixed period of time.

The events in USA stimulated the drastic strengthening of CHF rate. In American session USD/CHF rate fell more than by 530 points (from 1.6895 down to 1.6365). EURO/CHF rate fell more than by 200 points and came down lower than the level of the strong psychological support - 1.5 CHF for 1 EURO - to the point 1.4950. The matter is that CHF is considered saving (salutary) currency under the conditions of various world crises. Consequently, investors were anxious to buy CHF as many as possible in such an uncertain situation, induced by the act of terrorism in USA.

Do you get it? Panic captured the whole world - in the first place, USA itself. At the same time, USD rate fell with respect to

- EURO by 2%;

- GBP by 1.47%;

- JPY by 2.7%.

Now let us determine the real fall in USD rate all over the world. As the starting point we take Special Decision by National Bank of Ukraine.

The board of directors of National Bank of Ukraine adopted the resolution, in accordance to which National Bank of Ukraine could fix a rate without taking into account demand and supply. After the act of terrorism in USA on September 11, currency exchange centers in Ukraine raided USD buying rate from 5.25 down to 3.0-2.5 hrivnia (Ukrainian national money) per $1. USD selling rate was being maintained at 5, 35 hrivnia per $1. National Bank of Ukraine stipulated that USD exchange rate had not to deviate from the official rate more than by 10%. Only after threatening to cancel the license to work at the currency cash payments market (Available Funds), currency exchange centers return to buying of USD in cash according to the rate that had been in force before September 11, 2001.

That is, in contrast to the controllable market, the spontaneous one reacted to one day of the force major of September 11 by the double fall in USD rate and more!

Thus, the difference between the reactions of the currency exchange spontaneous and controllable markets makes 50 times and more.

Is it a pure accident? Thus, it looks as at that day the traders, one and all, deciding to stand by USD - so that in their transactions they did not stake on USD rate slump? Or, probably, some of traders bought USD against other national currencies, even not knowing whether USA economics will retain the leading positions in the world or it will level with undeveloped countries (e.g., such as Ukraine). Is it possible? You just imagine what would happen if another plane or two were fallen on reactors of nuclear power plants in USA so that the major part of America would turn into "Chernobyl zone"!

See continuation of this article under name Forex Secrets - Developing the "anti-chaos" trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part II)

Note: Full text of this article and pictures of examples Article

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit Masterforex-V Academy

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The Best Forex Trading Strategy That Hardly Anybody Uses

The best forex trading strategy that nobody uses would have to be price action. It's strange that this is the case, when you consider it's the oldest form of technical trading. Floor traders like Jesse Livermore became legends by just trading off of the price movement of the underlying stock on the market floor.

He would mentally note the key areas of where he spotted support and resistance, and trade off of that. The amazing thing is that forex traders could be doing that today, 100+ years later. Unfortunately, most traders don't trade like this. They would much prefer to put a bunch of indicators in their charts and hope for the best.

When you trade price action, you are the indicator. There are no shortcuts in this. To some, that's a bad thing. But if you take the time to look at the history of trading, you'll notice the theme that most successful traders preach about learning price action.

If you think about it, it's the only true way to see the markets. There is no filter involved. It's just you and the market, and can you understand what it's trying to tell you?

Following price action allows you see things like the TRUE support and resistance levels, how to spot trends, and how to tell where the future price is headed. The key is to get rid of all the shortcuts that you are using. This means no indicators, forex expert advisors, or any of the other bells and whistles.

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What's the Best Currency Trading Strategy?

Ironically, I believe the best currency trading strategy is the one that is right now being extremely underused. The strategy that I am referring to is called price action. The concept is as old as the free market itself. You could research on traders like Jesse Livermore, who at the turn of the 20th century, became millionaires just by being able to follow the price movement of a stock, caused by the other floor traders.

Sure, the technology has changed, but the concept still remains the same. The only difference now is that many mainstream traders have gotten, quite frankly, too lazy for their own good.

Instead of sitting down and trying to figure out what makes the market really tick, they instead prefer just to blast their charts with a bunch of useless indicators that don't provide any kind of insight to market, but somehow traders use them to "analyze" the market.

You can judge for yourself how well this kind of trading methodology works. by looking at the famous statistic, which is: 95% of forex traders end up losing money. Hopefully when you read that statistic, you'll realize that you just can''t let technology do the work for you. You are going to have to get your feet wet, if you want to succeed trading forex.

Basically when you have indicators telling you when and how to trade, you take yourself out of the equation. You minus well be a robot if that is the case.

When YOU become the indicator is when you really learn how to read a chart properly. That starts and ends with the best currency trading strategy: price action.

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Forex Strategy - The MACD Indicator Can Save You

Trading currencies on the foreign exchange market, commonly known as forex, can be a difficult process that is hard to understand. It is important to follow the trends of the values of currency in order to make predictions about where the currencies are headed in the future. This is the only way to reliably make a profit over time by trading on the foreign exchange. In order to do this, it is important to have indicators which let you know when it is a good idea to buy or sell specific currencies. One of the most important indicators is referred to as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or the MACD indicator.

The MACD indicator for a specific indicator is calculated by taking the short term exponential moving average (EMA) of a currency, and subtracting the long term EMA from it. This results in the MACD. An even shorter term EMA is then calculated from the MACD, which is plotted over top of the MACD and is referred to as the signal line.

In order to use the MACD to make good financial decisions, it is important to understand how to use it properly as an indicator. The most important thing to consider is when the MACD and the signal line cross one another. This means that the momentum of a currency is shifting. If the MACD crosses from below to above the signal line, it means that the momentum of the currency is shifting in a positive direction. More and more people are investing in the currency, causing it to rise in value, which is referred to as a bull market. This is usually interpreted as a signal to buy. If, on the other hand, the MACD crosses from above to below the signal line, then the value of a currency is losing momentum in a situation called a bear market. This is typically considered a good time to sell a currency.

If the MACD and the signal line separate from one another, this is not necessarily an indicator either to buy or to sell, but it does mean that the trend of the currency is changing.

If the MACD takes a sudden and drastic turn, this means that the short term average is pulling away from the long term average. This usually means that too many people have invested in a currency, and it is likely to swing back to normal values within a short period of time.

Finally, the position of the MACD in relation to zero is important. Above zero means the currency is rising, below zero means its falling.

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Forex Secrets - Developing the "Anti-Chaos" Trading Strategy and Tactics at Forex Market (Part I)

"Trading chaos": B. Williams's contribution and the reasons why millions of traders all over the world lose their deposits when they work according to the techniques of this author.

The book "Trading Chaos" by B. Williams is the classical edition that deals with giving the technical analysis to Forex. It is of a great interest not only to me but also to millions of B. Williams's admirers all over the world. From the viewpoint of mine as a trader, this book is so popular because B. Williams tried to do the following:

1. To present Forex chaotic market as a system, making use of the chaos theory.

2. To depict his vision of logic of the structural components motion in this chaos: a) the strategy (Elliot's wave theory); b) the tactics (the fractal analysis; the use of fractals and the so-called "key factor" - i.e., financial and economic instruments.

3. To submit 5 levels of the professional training of every trader. Each of these levels is clearly described and specified - as well as the corresponding goals and the instruments that traders must be capable of using at each of these levels.

In particular, the following chapters of the book in question are dedicated to the problems enumerated below:

Chapter 6. The first level - a trader- novice.

Chapter 7. The second level - an advanced beginner.

Chapter 9. The third level - a competent trader.

Chapter 11. The fourth level - a skilful (trading) trader.

Chapter 12. The fifth level - a trader -expert.

4. Besides, B. Williams enumerates 5 "bullets" that can "kill" any trend -i.e., its reversal points (points of reference). Starting from such points, one can develop new strategy and tactics of the work within the trend.

5. B. Williams also recommends making a business plan. In this "control list", one must clearly specify "the working rhythm", the signals from "the big finger" concerning the deal opening, "stop-loss" levels, cushion pads (suspension pillows), etc.

6. As a professional psychotherapist and trader, B. Williams submits practical recommendations to the beginners and skillful (competent) traders - see Chapters 11 and 12 from "Trading Chaos». The essence of his attitude to traders' principal psychological problems can be approximately formulated as the following. We learn how to integrate into the market basic structure and establish contacts with the market via realizing our own prejudices and by the development of our individual trading programs. You should compare this approach with other psychoanalysts' viewpoints. Such "specialists" try to make money at Forex market rather incompetently (see Chapter 23, dedicated to traders' psychological problems that arise during the work at Forex and methods of their "healing").

7. As the logical continuation of "Trading Chaos", B. Williams has written another book - see "New Dimensions in Exchange Trading". In this book, the author presents his business approach - i.e., Profitunity "via the web".

· He has introduced the indicators (AO, AC and Alligator). Now they are regarded as the obligatory) components of the majority of Forex trading systems.

· He tried to "specify (detect) all market signals" and open deals at the moment when such signals coincide simultaneously, which must be confirmed by different indicators.

I would like to keep on complimenting B. Williams for his accomplishments and contribution to Forex theory but for "one snag to it". Several years ago I started to reflect on certain aspects of B. William's theory. That is, as a rule, 95-97% of traders had lost at Forex before the edition of "Trade Chaos 1, -2" and "New dimensions". At the same time, notwithstanding all achievements and discoveries by B. Williams, the number of traders -losers still remains the same even after the editing of these books.

This circumstance forced me to scrutinize many of B. William's positions more impartially and in detail. I have cardinally reconsidered my views on the trading at Forex.

As I see it, one must clearly distinguish domains where techniques by B. William's and other authors are applicable and where they do not work but only accelerate the process of losing money by a trader. Only after having learned how to detect this boundary one can develop one's own trading system that will bring profits at Forex.

Further, I try to submit my views on Forex market. Starting from the theory, I make a transition to its practical application. In this way one can better understand logic of the currency pair movement at Forex market. Consequently, this approach helps us to trace out a general pattern of opening and closing of transactions at Forex.

CHANGES in FOREX MARKET. FOREX CONTROLLABLE SYSTEM instead of CHAOTIC MARKET and ITS CONSEQUENCES for TRADER'S WORK

Previously Forex was a chaotic market. B. Williams tried to find elements of a system, making use of the theory of chaos. At present the system "tries to disguise its goals and plans" with the help of a superficially chaotic character of movements in this market.

As regards Consortium, the PRINCIPAL CONCLUSION that a trader must make after reading this chapter is the following. This market has ceased to be spontaneous. Now it is organized and controllable. At present volumes of transactions, opened by traders, have ceased being of great influence. Somebody's interest "to push" a currency towards this or that direction has become much more important. Often this interest aims at usurping an N- transaction volume and a number of traders' orders. The primary goal has become to reverse all currency pairs into the opposite direction. This is why the currency often "moves" against the volume, news and the common sense. The charts on April 1, 2005 perfectly illustrate these tendencies. I sincerely hope that everybody sees that these graphs do make exceptions but they don't confirm the rules of Forex.

This is why the techniques of working at Forex, written by those classicists who dealt with the spontaneous market, will more and more diverge from the currency real (true) quotations. It is necessary to mention that at the spontaneous market the direction of the trend and its intensity coincide with the trading volume. At present the base of Forex market is changed in its essence. Now it's being driven by INTEREST of a certain grouping but not by spontaneous forces. This grouping prescribes the currency quotations to us at the market. It is ready to reverse currency pairs against any volume of traders' orders.

The reader should recall one of A. Elder's principal ideas - this author is the classicist of the stock market technical analysis, a trader and the professional psychotherapist. He states that the market is being driven by a crowd (flock), which opens the deals towards one direction. This results in the trade formation.

It is justified when one deals with the chaotic market.

But what does happen at Forex market at present?

Let us again return to the example of USD trend reversal from the "bear" type to "bull" one.

The charts on April 1, 2005 are depicted below.

Chart 8.1. EUR/USD movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.2. GBP/USD pair movement. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Let us scrutinize GBP/USD pair behavior on April 1, 2005 after issuing of positive data on GBP and negative ones concerning USA economics. During March, in Great Britain CIPS manufacturing index made 52.0 (the previous value had been reconsidered from 51.8 down to 51.6). In New York, the oil price heightened by $ 2.40 - up to $ 57.70 per barrel. It was the new record-breaking high price in 21 years. During March in USA Nonfarm payrolls were minimal to start from July of the previous year. Its previous value was revised towards its diminution. Michigan sentiment index was 92.6 in March (the forecast had been 92.9 - it had coincided with the previous value). All USA indexes had fallen down.

I hope you take on trust that at the same moment all other currency pairs were adjusted for benefit of USD rate rise against other national currencies. Those who do not believe can check it - these data are public and open to general use.

There arise the questions.

1. Can traders all over the world open transactions in USD "bear" trend almost at the same moment (from M1 to H4 and D1). That is, under the condition of the issue of negative news on USA economy, all traders simultaneously started to buy USD and sell all national currencies. Consequently, USD rate began to sky-rocket. Clearly, this situation contradicts the news, logic and common sense.

2. One should pay attention to the synchronous character of motion of all national currency pairs. The difference in time makes from a fraction of a second to a minute.

The charts on April 29, 2005 serve as another example.

Chart 8.3. EUR/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.4. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Analysts attract our attention to the following facts. In the European session EURO/USD pair rate had increased up to the point 1.2976. In the American session it fell down to 1.2852, minimal to start from April 15. The rate fell more than by 120 points. Analysts emphasize the fact that high values of several other USA indices (CIPS and Chicago PMI) pegged USD rate.

In USA in March the personal income index was +0.5%. At the same time, the prognostication had been +0.4%, which had coincided with the previous value. In USA in March the personal spending index made +0.6%. The prognostication and the previous value had been +0.5% and +0.7%, respectively. In April Chicago PMI made 65.6. The prognostication had been 63.0, whereas the prognostication and the previous value had had been 63.0 and 69.2, respectively.

As the consequence of this second "fortuitous" reversal of currencies, USD trend at H4 was changed - from April till the end September, 2005 - i.e., during half a year (at least when his chapter was being written).

As the result of this reversal, national currencies were depreciated with respect to USD. The corresponding indicators (gauges) are the following:

· EURO fell by 1100 points (from 1.2972 down to 1.1865);

· GBP fell by 1900 points (from 1.9164 down to 1.7271);

· CHF fell by 1600 points (from 1.1882 down to 1.3484);

· AUD fell almost by 500 points (from 1.7844 down to 1.7365).

It is an absurd joke, isn't it?

That is, the trend has reversed synchronously with respect to all national currencies by 1000-1900 points for half a year just because of the following events in USA on March, 2005:

- Chicago PMI index was +0.5% instead of +0.4%;

- personal spending index made +0.6% in place of the previous value +0.7%.

Were these events stimulated by traders' wishes and expectations? That is, does it look like all traders simultaneously were being staking wrong over and over again during half a year!

Giving analysis to all the events of those two days, one can see a striking alternative:

1. Either we assume an absurd possibility that there does exist "a world-wide plot of traders" - big gamblers at Forex " included. That is, traders can always act synchronously, whereas National Banks of all countries keep on remaining oddly passive.

2. Otherwise, proceeding from these and hundreds of thousands of the analogous examples, we must admit that Forex is not a spontaneous, unpredictable and chaotic market any more. Now it is replaced by a market, controlled by somebody. In terms of Financial Times and the journal "Currency profiteer (speculator)", this parent group (the organizer of Forex ), is called "Consortium". Below I use this term as well. Consortium is capable of the following:

a). in a fraction of a second to reverse USD trend more than by thousand of points with respect to all national currencies of the world;

b). not to give any chance to National Banks of all countries in the world to prevent the steep fall (or rise) of their national currency rates with respect to USD. Surely, it is assumable that National Banks closely collaborate with this Consortium. However, in this context another statement is important. That is, USD rate reversal occurs simultaneously with respect to exchange rates of all national currencies. However, it looks rather dubious that this very day wishes of all National Banks' suddenly coincided with the purposes of Consortium. Probably, another situation is more realistic. At least some of National Banks were forced to obey Consortium's resolution - i.e., to reverse USD trend with respect to other currencies, their own included.

Thus, there emerges a completely different model. One must not follow "the crowd" ("the flock"), trading volumes and postponed orders at Forex. Giving analysis to a series of factors (the trading volume included), it is necessary to understand the interests and aims of those who give quotations at Forex. Our goal is "to trade together with those individuals". Very often it is against the "crowd" and "volume" of transactions opened by traders. It is illustrated by the example of the charts on April 1, 2005.

Let's dwell on the difference between the goals of Organizer and common participants of any of financial games.

Imagine yourself in the position of an organizer of any financial game, the game of " Forex " included. In the shoes of Organizer, first of all you must determine your goals and principles, opposite to those of other participants of this "game".

1. For the game organizer it is to gain profit regularly and stably.

2. For this purpose, Organizer tries to establish the game rules as simple and "impartial" as possible. His goal is to make this game attractive for all other participants. In this way Organizer collects a large audience of traders, independently of their age, profession and other differences between them.

And now one should look at the familiar aspects from this viewpoint.

a). The fundamental and technical analysis; the army of economists-analysts and other "specialists" who teach all participants to work at Forex "as all do".

b). The classical version of notions of the support and resistance levels (indicators, advisers, etc.), intended for placing all suspended orders and stop-losses approximately at the same points.

c). An abundance of news and factors that influence the currency quotation behavior. As the result, one can readily explain the movement of any currency pair in any way one likes - however, such explanations are submitted post factum.

In case of logical gaps in "impartiality" of the currency pair movement explanation after the issue of news, "foul (forbidden)" methods are always "at service". It is just impossible to refute this reasoning! There are the examples: "the market is unpredictable", "the currency has already finished "working for" the given news before its publication", "the participants have noticed a negative aspect of the index high values, which for sure will manifest itself in future", "an unknown clearing bank has placed an order for buying a given currency in a large amount - under the condition of the "bear" trend (when all trader stake on "sell")", etc. Can you prove the opposite? Surely, you cannot.

You should compare the behavior of the controllable and spontaneous currency markets under the condition of force major.

Only the force major factor is totally unpredictable by Organizer. Such circumstances impartially and clearly indicate the difference between the spontaneous and organized (controllable) markets.

In any area, extremities always play the role of the moment of absolute truth. That is, such extreme situations indicate weak and strong points of any system. It relates to politicians' behavior at crucial periods in a State, to putting on trial equipment and to the situation at the currency market under force major circumstances.

The Episode #1. The force major circumstances in USA on September 11, 2001. There is the difference in the behavior of spontaneous and controllable money-markets.

Chart 8.5. EUR/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.6. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

The results of trading at Forex on September 11, 2001 ( Forexite Ltd.) are the following. The dollar rate sweepingly fell as compared with the principal national currencies. EURO/USD rate increased more than by 200 points (from 0.8965 up to 0.99167). GBP/USD rate increased more than by 210 points (from 1.4559 up to 1.4773). USD/JPY rate fell almost by 330 points (from 121.84 down to 118.58).

The reason for drop in USD rate was the terrorists' attacks on New-York and Washington. According to news agencies, terrorists had had high-jacked passenger planes. The latter were directed at Trading Center in New-York and Department of Defense (Pentagon) in Washington. The planes had fallen down, which caused the subsequent conflagration and collapse of Trading Center two sky-scrapers. As the result, the trading at New-York Stock Exchange did not take place that day. It was suspended for a not fixed period of time.

The events in USA stimulated the drastic strengthening of CHF rate. In American session USD/CHF rate fell more than by 530 points (from 1.6895 down to 1.6365). EURO/CHF rate fell more than by 200 points and came down lower than the level of the strong psychological support - 1.5 CHF for 1 EURO - to the point 1.4950. The matter is that CHF is considered saving (salutary) currency under the conditions of various world crises. Consequently, investors were anxious to buy CHF as many as possible in such an uncertain situation, induced by the act of terrorism in USA.

Do you get it? Panic captured the whole world - in the first place, USA itself. At the same time, USD rate fell with respect to

- EURO by 2%;

- GBP by 1.47%;

- JPY by 2.7%.

Now let us determine the real fall in USD rate all over the world. As the starting point we take Special Decision by National Bank of Ukraine.

The board of directors of National Bank of Ukraine adopted the resolution, in accordance to which National Bank of Ukraine could fix a rate without taking into account demand and supply. After the act of terrorism in USA on September 11, currency exchange centers in Ukraine raided USD buying rate from 5.25 down to 3.0-2.5 hrivnia (Ukrainian national money) per $1. USD selling rate was being maintained at 5, 35 hrivnia per $1. National Bank of Ukraine stipulated that USD exchange rate had not to deviate from the official rate more than by 10%. Only after threatening to cancel the license to work at the currency cash payments market (Available Funds), currency exchange centers return to buying of USD in cash according to the rate that had been in force before September 11, 2001.

That is, in contrast to the controllable market, the spontaneous one reacted to one day of the force major of September 11 by the double fall in USD rate and more!

Thus, the difference between the reactions of the currency exchange spontaneous and controllable markets makes 50 times and more.

Is it a pure accident? Thus, it looks as at that day the traders, one and all, deciding to stand by USD - so that in their transactions they did not stake on USD rate slump? Or, probably, some of traders bought USD against other national currencies, even not knowing whether USA economics will retain the leading positions in the world or it will level with undeveloped countries (e.g., such as Ukraine). Is it possible? You just imagine what would happen if another plane or two were fallen on reactors of nuclear power plants in USA so that the major part of America would turn into "Chernobyl zone"!

See continuation of this article under name Forex Secrets - Developing the "anti-chaos" trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part II)

Note: Full text of this article and pictures of examples Article

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit Masterforex-V Academy

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What's the Best Currency Trading Strategy?

Ironically, I believe the best currency trading strategy is the one that is right now being extremely underused. The strategy that I am referring to is called price action. The concept is as old as the free market itself. You could research on traders like Jesse Livermore, who at the turn of the 20th century, became millionaires just by being able to follow the price movement of a stock, caused by the other floor traders.

Sure, the technology has changed, but the concept still remains the same. The only difference now is that many mainstream traders have gotten, quite frankly, too lazy for their own good.

Instead of sitting down and trying to figure out what makes the market really tick, they instead prefer just to blast their charts with a bunch of useless indicators that don't provide any kind of insight to market, but somehow traders use them to "analyze" the market.

You can judge for yourself how well this kind of trading methodology works. by looking at the famous statistic, which is: 95% of forex traders end up losing money. Hopefully when you read that statistic, you'll realize that you just can''t let technology do the work for you. You are going to have to get your feet wet, if you want to succeed trading forex.

Basically when you have indicators telling you when and how to trade, you take yourself out of the equation. You minus well be a robot if that is the case.

When YOU become the indicator is when you really learn how to read a chart properly. That starts and ends with the best currency trading strategy: price action.

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The Best Forex Strategy

What is the best Forex strategy for trading in today's Forex market? What is the criteria for making this kind of decision as a trader? Many people have an opinion. Go to the Internet and you will be able to Google more methods than you can possibly read or understand if you could. The same would be true if you spent time at your library or bookstore reading through the books.

Typically you will get two kinds of information when it comes to trading strategy. One is objective in nature and one is subjective in nature. This is the primary dividing line that you will see if you look at the broad spectrum of trading Forex or for that matter any financial market.

Let's look at what this means? What is a subjective trading method? Here are some highlights from a book written on what evidence-based trading would include by David Aronson. Subjective methods are not well-defined in terms of the procedures. They are interpretative, therefore subjective. Opinionated. They include private interpretations of individuals. The methods are not computerized. "It is impossible to either confirm or deny a subjective method's efficacy." There is no evidentiary challenge.

What strategies would employ these techniques? Chart patterns for one. Yes, chart patterns do exist but if you listen to any number of traders they will disagree as to type and to which direction that the trade will go. The best thing that can be said about chart patterns is that typically they happen when price is wedged into a corner and must go in one direction or the other. Which way is open for debate.

The same could be said for Elliott Wave. Although seemingly very rational, this method is subjective. Simply read a book on the topic and then find one of several largely attended forums on the subject and you will get varying interpretations on the same currency pair and time frame. In the year I studied this method which included daily study on the forum and using a top Elliott Wave analytic website, I never got a clear directional analysis. Every analysis included the fact that the trade could go either way and there was not clear signal.

In contrast is the objective strategy. This strategy is not fool proof but the signals are unambiguous. They are programmable. The results can be tested. There is no question to the direction of the signal.

The idea when you are looking at a trading strategy to build upon, and I stress that, is to start with a system that can be measured. The best traders use a method that allows them to do this. Regardless of whether you analyze the market fundamentally to determine what you think a currency pair will do, or technically first, you need a point of entry and your trading strategy should employ a trading entry that is objective, not subjective. If you do this you will have a solid foundation for your trading and one that will allow you a way to test it against the prevailing Forex market.

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Forex Secrets - Developing the "Anti-Chaos" Trading Strategy and Tactics at Forex Market (Part I)

"Trading chaos": B. Williams's contribution and the reasons why millions of traders all over the world lose their deposits when they work according to the techniques of this author.

The book "Trading Chaos" by B. Williams is the classical edition that deals with giving the technical analysis to Forex. It is of a great interest not only to me but also to millions of B. Williams's admirers all over the world. From the viewpoint of mine as a trader, this book is so popular because B. Williams tried to do the following:

1. To present Forex chaotic market as a system, making use of the chaos theory.

2. To depict his vision of logic of the structural components motion in this chaos: a) the strategy (Elliot's wave theory); b) the tactics (the fractal analysis; the use of fractals and the so-called "key factor" - i.e., financial and economic instruments.

3. To submit 5 levels of the professional training of every trader. Each of these levels is clearly described and specified - as well as the corresponding goals and the instruments that traders must be capable of using at each of these levels.

In particular, the following chapters of the book in question are dedicated to the problems enumerated below:

Chapter 6. The first level - a trader- novice.

Chapter 7. The second level - an advanced beginner.

Chapter 9. The third level - a competent trader.

Chapter 11. The fourth level - a skilful (trading) trader.

Chapter 12. The fifth level - a trader -expert.

4. Besides, B. Williams enumerates 5 "bullets" that can "kill" any trend -i.e., its reversal points (points of reference). Starting from such points, one can develop new strategy and tactics of the work within the trend.

5. B. Williams also recommends making a business plan. In this "control list", one must clearly specify "the working rhythm", the signals from "the big finger" concerning the deal opening, "stop-loss" levels, cushion pads (suspension pillows), etc.

6. As a professional psychotherapist and trader, B. Williams submits practical recommendations to the beginners and skillful (competent) traders - see Chapters 11 and 12 from "Trading Chaos». The essence of his attitude to traders' principal psychological problems can be approximately formulated as the following. We learn how to integrate into the market basic structure and establish contacts with the market via realizing our own prejudices and by the development of our individual trading programs. You should compare this approach with other psychoanalysts' viewpoints. Such "specialists" try to make money at Forex market rather incompetently (see Chapter 23, dedicated to traders' psychological problems that arise during the work at Forex and methods of their "healing").

7. As the logical continuation of "Trading Chaos", B. Williams has written another book - see "New Dimensions in Exchange Trading". In this book, the author presents his business approach - i.e., Profitunity "via the web".

· He has introduced the indicators (AO, AC and Alligator). Now they are regarded as the obligatory) components of the majority of Forex trading systems.

· He tried to "specify (detect) all market signals" and open deals at the moment when such signals coincide simultaneously, which must be confirmed by different indicators.

I would like to keep on complimenting B. Williams for his accomplishments and contribution to Forex theory but for "one snag to it". Several years ago I started to reflect on certain aspects of B. William's theory. That is, as a rule, 95-97% of traders had lost at Forex before the edition of "Trade Chaos 1, -2" and "New dimensions". At the same time, notwithstanding all achievements and discoveries by B. Williams, the number of traders -losers still remains the same even after the editing of these books.

This circumstance forced me to scrutinize many of B. William's positions more impartially and in detail. I have cardinally reconsidered my views on the trading at Forex.

As I see it, one must clearly distinguish domains where techniques by B. William's and other authors are applicable and where they do not work but only accelerate the process of losing money by a trader. Only after having learned how to detect this boundary one can develop one's own trading system that will bring profits at Forex.

Further, I try to submit my views on Forex market. Starting from the theory, I make a transition to its practical application. In this way one can better understand logic of the currency pair movement at Forex market. Consequently, this approach helps us to trace out a general pattern of opening and closing of transactions at Forex.

CHANGES in FOREX MARKET. FOREX CONTROLLABLE SYSTEM instead of CHAOTIC MARKET and ITS CONSEQUENCES for TRADER'S WORK

Previously Forex was a chaotic market. B. Williams tried to find elements of a system, making use of the theory of chaos. At present the system "tries to disguise its goals and plans" with the help of a superficially chaotic character of movements in this market.

As regards Consortium, the PRINCIPAL CONCLUSION that a trader must make after reading this chapter is the following. This market has ceased to be spontaneous. Now it is organized and controllable. At present volumes of transactions, opened by traders, have ceased being of great influence. Somebody's interest "to push" a currency towards this or that direction has become much more important. Often this interest aims at usurping an N- transaction volume and a number of traders' orders. The primary goal has become to reverse all currency pairs into the opposite direction. This is why the currency often "moves" against the volume, news and the common sense. The charts on April 1, 2005 perfectly illustrate these tendencies. I sincerely hope that everybody sees that these graphs do make exceptions but they don't confirm the rules of Forex.

This is why the techniques of working at Forex, written by those classicists who dealt with the spontaneous market, will more and more diverge from the currency real (true) quotations. It is necessary to mention that at the spontaneous market the direction of the trend and its intensity coincide with the trading volume. At present the base of Forex market is changed in its essence. Now it's being driven by INTEREST of a certain grouping but not by spontaneous forces. This grouping prescribes the currency quotations to us at the market. It is ready to reverse currency pairs against any volume of traders' orders.

The reader should recall one of A. Elder's principal ideas - this author is the classicist of the stock market technical analysis, a trader and the professional psychotherapist. He states that the market is being driven by a crowd (flock), which opens the deals towards one direction. This results in the trade formation.

It is justified when one deals with the chaotic market.

But what does happen at Forex market at present?

Let us again return to the example of USD trend reversal from the "bear" type to "bull" one.

The charts on April 1, 2005 are depicted below.

Chart 8.1. EUR/USD movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.2. GBP/USD pair movement. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Let us scrutinize GBP/USD pair behavior on April 1, 2005 after issuing of positive data on GBP and negative ones concerning USA economics. During March, in Great Britain CIPS manufacturing index made 52.0 (the previous value had been reconsidered from 51.8 down to 51.6). In New York, the oil price heightened by $ 2.40 - up to $ 57.70 per barrel. It was the new record-breaking high price in 21 years. During March in USA Nonfarm payrolls were minimal to start from July of the previous year. Its previous value was revised towards its diminution. Michigan sentiment index was 92.6 in March (the forecast had been 92.9 - it had coincided with the previous value). All USA indexes had fallen down.

I hope you take on trust that at the same moment all other currency pairs were adjusted for benefit of USD rate rise against other national currencies. Those who do not believe can check it - these data are public and open to general use.

There arise the questions.

1. Can traders all over the world open transactions in USD "bear" trend almost at the same moment (from M1 to H4 and D1). That is, under the condition of the issue of negative news on USA economy, all traders simultaneously started to buy USD and sell all national currencies. Consequently, USD rate began to sky-rocket. Clearly, this situation contradicts the news, logic and common sense.

2. One should pay attention to the synchronous character of motion of all national currency pairs. The difference in time makes from a fraction of a second to a minute.

The charts on April 29, 2005 serve as another example.

Chart 8.3. EUR/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.4. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Analysts attract our attention to the following facts. In the European session EURO/USD pair rate had increased up to the point 1.2976. In the American session it fell down to 1.2852, minimal to start from April 15. The rate fell more than by 120 points. Analysts emphasize the fact that high values of several other USA indices (CIPS and Chicago PMI) pegged USD rate.

In USA in March the personal income index was +0.5%. At the same time, the prognostication had been +0.4%, which had coincided with the previous value. In USA in March the personal spending index made +0.6%. The prognostication and the previous value had been +0.5% and +0.7%, respectively. In April Chicago PMI made 65.6. The prognostication had been 63.0, whereas the prognostication and the previous value had had been 63.0 and 69.2, respectively.

As the consequence of this second "fortuitous" reversal of currencies, USD trend at H4 was changed - from April till the end September, 2005 - i.e., during half a year (at least when his chapter was being written).

As the result of this reversal, national currencies were depreciated with respect to USD. The corresponding indicators (gauges) are the following:

· EURO fell by 1100 points (from 1.2972 down to 1.1865);

· GBP fell by 1900 points (from 1.9164 down to 1.7271);

· CHF fell by 1600 points (from 1.1882 down to 1.3484);

· AUD fell almost by 500 points (from 1.7844 down to 1.7365).

It is an absurd joke, isn't it?

That is, the trend has reversed synchronously with respect to all national currencies by 1000-1900 points for half a year just because of the following events in USA on March, 2005:

- Chicago PMI index was +0.5% instead of +0.4%;

- personal spending index made +0.6% in place of the previous value +0.7%.

Were these events stimulated by traders' wishes and expectations? That is, does it look like all traders simultaneously were being staking wrong over and over again during half a year!

Giving analysis to all the events of those two days, one can see a striking alternative:

1. Either we assume an absurd possibility that there does exist "a world-wide plot of traders" - big gamblers at Forex " included. That is, traders can always act synchronously, whereas National Banks of all countries keep on remaining oddly passive.

2. Otherwise, proceeding from these and hundreds of thousands of the analogous examples, we must admit that Forex is not a spontaneous, unpredictable and chaotic market any more. Now it is replaced by a market, controlled by somebody. In terms of Financial Times and the journal "Currency profiteer (speculator)", this parent group (the organizer of Forex ), is called "Consortium". Below I use this term as well. Consortium is capable of the following:

a). in a fraction of a second to reverse USD trend more than by thousand of points with respect to all national currencies of the world;

b). not to give any chance to National Banks of all countries in the world to prevent the steep fall (or rise) of their national currency rates with respect to USD. Surely, it is assumable that National Banks closely collaborate with this Consortium. However, in this context another statement is important. That is, USD rate reversal occurs simultaneously with respect to exchange rates of all national currencies. However, it looks rather dubious that this very day wishes of all National Banks' suddenly coincided with the purposes of Consortium. Probably, another situation is more realistic. At least some of National Banks were forced to obey Consortium's resolution - i.e., to reverse USD trend with respect to other currencies, their own included.

Thus, there emerges a completely different model. One must not follow "the crowd" ("the flock"), trading volumes and postponed orders at Forex. Giving analysis to a series of factors (the trading volume included), it is necessary to understand the interests and aims of those who give quotations at Forex. Our goal is "to trade together with those individuals". Very often it is against the "crowd" and "volume" of transactions opened by traders. It is illustrated by the example of the charts on April 1, 2005.

Let's dwell on the difference between the goals of Organizer and common participants of any of financial games.

Imagine yourself in the position of an organizer of any financial game, the game of " Forex " included. In the shoes of Organizer, first of all you must determine your goals and principles, opposite to those of other participants of this "game".

1. For the game organizer it is to gain profit regularly and stably.

2. For this purpose, Organizer tries to establish the game rules as simple and "impartial" as possible. His goal is to make this game attractive for all other participants. In this way Organizer collects a large audience of traders, independently of their age, profession and other differences between them.

And now one should look at the familiar aspects from this viewpoint.

a). The fundamental and technical analysis; the army of economists-analysts and other "specialists" who teach all participants to work at Forex "as all do".

b). The classical version of notions of the support and resistance levels (indicators, advisers, etc.), intended for placing all suspended orders and stop-losses approximately at the same points.

c). An abundance of news and factors that influence the currency quotation behavior. As the result, one can readily explain the movement of any currency pair in any way one likes - however, such explanations are submitted post factum.

In case of logical gaps in "impartiality" of the currency pair movement explanation after the issue of news, "foul (forbidden)" methods are always "at service". It is just impossible to refute this reasoning! There are the examples: "the market is unpredictable", "the currency has already finished "working for" the given news before its publication", "the participants have noticed a negative aspect of the index high values, which for sure will manifest itself in future", "an unknown clearing bank has placed an order for buying a given currency in a large amount - under the condition of the "bear" trend (when all trader stake on "sell")", etc. Can you prove the opposite? Surely, you cannot.

You should compare the behavior of the controllable and spontaneous currency markets under the condition of force major.

Only the force major factor is totally unpredictable by Organizer. Such circumstances impartially and clearly indicate the difference between the spontaneous and organized (controllable) markets.

In any area, extremities always play the role of the moment of absolute truth. That is, such extreme situations indicate weak and strong points of any system. It relates to politicians' behavior at crucial periods in a State, to putting on trial equipment and to the situation at the currency market under force major circumstances.

The Episode #1. The force major circumstances in USA on September 11, 2001. There is the difference in the behavior of spontaneous and controllable money-markets.

Chart 8.5. EUR/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.6. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

The results of trading at Forex on September 11, 2001 ( Forexite Ltd.) are the following. The dollar rate sweepingly fell as compared with the principal national currencies. EURO/USD rate increased more than by 200 points (from 0.8965 up to 0.99167). GBP/USD rate increased more than by 210 points (from 1.4559 up to 1.4773). USD/JPY rate fell almost by 330 points (from 121.84 down to 118.58).

The reason for drop in USD rate was the terrorists' attacks on New-York and Washington. According to news agencies, terrorists had had high-jacked passenger planes. The latter were directed at Trading Center in New-York and Department of Defense (Pentagon) in Washington. The planes had fallen down, which caused the subsequent conflagration and collapse of Trading Center two sky-scrapers. As the result, the trading at New-York Stock Exchange did not take place that day. It was suspended for a not fixed period of time.

The events in USA stimulated the drastic strengthening of CHF rate. In American session USD/CHF rate fell more than by 530 points (from 1.6895 down to 1.6365). EURO/CHF rate fell more than by 200 points and came down lower than the level of the strong psychological support - 1.5 CHF for 1 EURO - to the point 1.4950. The matter is that CHF is considered saving (salutary) currency under the conditions of various world crises. Consequently, investors were anxious to buy CHF as many as possible in such an uncertain situation, induced by the act of terrorism in USA.

Do you get it? Panic captured the whole world - in the first place, USA itself. At the same time, USD rate fell with respect to

- EURO by 2%;

- GBP by 1.47%;

- JPY by 2.7%.

Now let us determine the real fall in USD rate all over the world. As the starting point we take Special Decision by National Bank of Ukraine.

The board of directors of National Bank of Ukraine adopted the resolution, in accordance to which National Bank of Ukraine could fix a rate without taking into account demand and supply. After the act of terrorism in USA on September 11, currency exchange centers in Ukraine raided USD buying rate from 5.25 down to 3.0-2.5 hrivnia (Ukrainian national money) per $1. USD selling rate was being maintained at 5, 35 hrivnia per $1. National Bank of Ukraine stipulated that USD exchange rate had not to deviate from the official rate more than by 10%. Only after threatening to cancel the license to work at the currency cash payments market (Available Funds), currency exchange centers return to buying of USD in cash according to the rate that had been in force before September 11, 2001.

That is, in contrast to the controllable market, the spontaneous one reacted to one day of the force major of September 11 by the double fall in USD rate and more!

Thus, the difference between the reactions of the currency exchange spontaneous and controllable markets makes 50 times and more.

Is it a pure accident? Thus, it looks as at that day the traders, one and all, deciding to stand by USD - so that in their transactions they did not stake on USD rate slump? Or, probably, some of traders bought USD against other national currencies, even not knowing whether USA economics will retain the leading positions in the world or it will level with undeveloped countries (e.g., such as Ukraine). Is it possible? You just imagine what would happen if another plane or two were fallen on reactors of nuclear power plants in USA so that the major part of America would turn into "Chernobyl zone"!

See continuation of this article under name Forex Secrets - Developing the "anti-chaos" trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part II)

Note: Full text of this article and pictures of examples Article

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit Masterforex-V Academy

Read more...

The Best Forex Trading Strategy That Hardly Anybody Uses

The best forex trading strategy that nobody uses would have to be price action. It's strange that this is the case, when you consider it's the oldest form of technical trading. Floor traders like Jesse Livermore became legends by just trading off of the price movement of the underlying stock on the market floor.

He would mentally note the key areas of where he spotted support and resistance, and trade off of that. The amazing thing is that forex traders could be doing that today, 100+ years later. Unfortunately, most traders don't trade like this. They would much prefer to put a bunch of indicators in their charts and hope for the best.

When you trade price action, you are the indicator. There are no shortcuts in this. To some, that's a bad thing. But if you take the time to look at the history of trading, you'll notice the theme that most successful traders preach about learning price action.

If you think about it, it's the only true way to see the markets. There is no filter involved. It's just you and the market, and can you understand what it's trying to tell you?

Following price action allows you see things like the TRUE support and resistance levels, how to spot trends, and how to tell where the future price is headed. The key is to get rid of all the shortcuts that you are using. This means no indicators, forex expert advisors, or any of the other bells and whistles.

Read more...

What's the Best Currency Trading Strategy?

Ironically, I believe the best currency trading strategy is the one that is right now being extremely underused. The strategy that I am referring to is called price action. The concept is as old as the free market itself. You could research on traders like Jesse Livermore, who at the turn of the 20th century, became millionaires just by being able to follow the price movement of a stock, caused by the other floor traders.

Sure, the technology has changed, but the concept still remains the same. The only difference now is that many mainstream traders have gotten, quite frankly, too lazy for their own good.

Instead of sitting down and trying to figure out what makes the market really tick, they instead prefer just to blast their charts with a bunch of useless indicators that don't provide any kind of insight to market, but somehow traders use them to "analyze" the market.

You can judge for yourself how well this kind of trading methodology works. by looking at the famous statistic, which is: 95% of forex traders end up losing money. Hopefully when you read that statistic, you'll realize that you just can''t let technology do the work for you. You are going to have to get your feet wet, if you want to succeed trading forex.

Basically when you have indicators telling you when and how to trade, you take yourself out of the equation. You minus well be a robot if that is the case.

When YOU become the indicator is when you really learn how to read a chart properly. That starts and ends with the best currency trading strategy: price action.

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Forex Trading Strategy - Essential Indicators Six of the Best

If you are devising a Forex trading strategy and using technical analysis you will need some indicators to help you execute your forex trading signals and below, we have outlined six essential indicators that any trader should consider using on their forex charts.

1. Moving Averages

A great back indicator to trend lines for seeing the direction of the trend.

Moving averages should not be used on their own to enter trades but combined with other indictors.

Moving averages in longer term time frames work best and I find the 200 day MA important and also use the 40 day and 18 day MA useful. Never use short term averages as trends need sufficient periods of data to be effective.

2. Bollinger Bands

If you want warnings of trends developing, or a tool to help you sell high volatility to execute trading singnals i.e. open new positions or to lock in profits, then Bollinger bands are ideal.

Like moving averages, this indicator is simply there to show you the opportunity and you should time your entry with other tools.

3. Net Trader Positions

This is simply one of the best tools there is for spotting the big contrary trades and is realized bi-weekly by the CFTC. Although it applies to futures markets, the data can be used for spot currency markets as well.

This tool will help you spit every major trend change in advance.

The reason for this is, it breaks the open interest in speculative and commercial positions.

We don't have room to explain the full logic here - but in essence speculators are always heavily net long at important market turning points while the commercials ( smart money ) are short.

By looking for divergences in speculative and commercial positions and looking for extremes, you can spot the big turning points coming.

So far we have looked at tools that can alert you to trading opportunities in your forex trading strategy - now, its time to look at some indicators to time entry on your forex charts and we have picked out 3 of the best.

4. Stochastic

George Lane, who developed the indicator, concluded that in an uptrend, prices tend to close near their high, and in a downtrend market, prices tend to close near their low.

This may sound simple, but the stochastic is simply one of the best momentum indicators out there for entering trades and taking profits.

5. Relative strength Index (RSI)

This indictor complements the above indicator perfectly and is another superb indicator to have in your forex trading strategy.

The RSI, as its name implies measures the relative strength of price currently compared to the past and gives you an idea of how strongly a market is trending.

This is one of the most popular momentum indicators in the world and was developed by trading legend, Wells Wilder as is the next indicator

6. Average Directional Movement (ADX)

The ADX is a momentum indicator, which aims to measure the strength of the trend - and attempts to determine if the market is in a trend or not.

The ADX line is a great momentum indicator and will help you trade the strongest trends - and give you advance warning of changes in momentum for profit taking or contrary trades.

So there you have six great technical indicators to incorporate in your forex trading strategy. There are of course others worthy of consideration, but these 6 are the ones I have used for the last 25 years and found them highly effective in my own forex trading systems and think you will to.

Take a look at them and see for yourself - Good trading

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Forex Beginners - Using Bollinger Bands in a Trending Strategy That Absolutely Works

One of the best forex indicators is Bollinger Bands. They are very simple to use, they are free, and they are extremely reliable. At just a glance, you can tell if the market is trending or stuck in a range. You can tell if the market has hit extreme prices or if it is about to explode.

So I want to show you a simple trading strategy that relies heavily on Bollinger bands. And, oh yeah, it makes pretty good money!

Identifying a trending market with Bollinger bands is very simple. If the market is trending up, price will walk up the upper band. If the market is trending down, price will walk down the lower band.

Bollinger bands plot a moving average in the middle, and the extreme bands are formed by standard deviation lines around that moving average. Now don't be scared by the algebraic term standard deviations. You don't have to know how to calculate them - the indicator does that by itself.

Normally, the standard deviation for Bollinger bands is set at 2. For this strategy, you want to change it to 1. Just go into the settings of the Bollinger indicator and change the number 2 to 1. This will help you identify trading opportunities better.

Now that you have changed the standard deviation, you will notice that the extreme bands are now closer to the moving average. This is exactly what you want.

Now look for any candle that closes outside the bands. When you see this, enter a trade in the direction of the closing candle. Your stop loss will go on the other side of the candle.

So, in an uptrend, you will place your stop below the candle that closed above the upper band. In a downtrend, you will place your stop above the candle that closed below the lower band.

Your take profit should be twice as much as your stop loss. For example, if your stop loss is 25 pips, then your take profit would be 50 pips.

Pretty simple, right? Not hard at all, and that is the way most profitable trading strategies are - simple.

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Forex Strategy - The MACD Indicator Can Save You

Trading currencies on the foreign exchange market, commonly known as forex, can be a difficult process that is hard to understand. It is important to follow the trends of the values of currency in order to make predictions about where the currencies are headed in the future. This is the only way to reliably make a profit over time by trading on the foreign exchange. In order to do this, it is important to have indicators which let you know when it is a good idea to buy or sell specific currencies. One of the most important indicators is referred to as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or the MACD indicator.

The MACD indicator for a specific indicator is calculated by taking the short term exponential moving average (EMA) of a currency, and subtracting the long term EMA from it. This results in the MACD. An even shorter term EMA is then calculated from the MACD, which is plotted over top of the MACD and is referred to as the signal line.

In order to use the MACD to make good financial decisions, it is important to understand how to use it properly as an indicator. The most important thing to consider is when the MACD and the signal line cross one another. This means that the momentum of a currency is shifting. If the MACD crosses from below to above the signal line, it means that the momentum of the currency is shifting in a positive direction. More and more people are investing in the currency, causing it to rise in value, which is referred to as a bull market. This is usually interpreted as a signal to buy. If, on the other hand, the MACD crosses from above to below the signal line, then the value of a currency is losing momentum in a situation called a bear market. This is typically considered a good time to sell a currency.

If the MACD and the signal line separate from one another, this is not necessarily an indicator either to buy or to sell, but it does mean that the trend of the currency is changing.

If the MACD takes a sudden and drastic turn, this means that the short term average is pulling away from the long term average. This usually means that too many people have invested in a currency, and it is likely to swing back to normal values within a short period of time.

Finally, the position of the MACD in relation to zero is important. Above zero means the currency is rising, below zero means its falling.

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